According to ESPN, Michigan has an uphill climb if it wants to win its second national championship in three years.
The cable sports network unveiled its annual Football Power Index (FPI) ratings on Tuesday, ranking the Wolverines 15th and giving them just a 1 percent chance of winning the College Football Playoff.
Before we dive deeper into the ratings, ESPN describes its FPI as a predictive rating system that measure each FBS team’s strength on offense, defense and special teams in points per game relative to the national average. It adjusts for starters lost, players added and personnel changes and simulates those numbers 20,000 times.
The result? Michigan is projected to win 8.4 games this fall, in line with the 8.5 wins oddsmakers have assigned the Wolverines, and has a 25 percent chance to qualify the 12-team CFP.
Sherrone Moore’s team posted a 7-5 regular-season record and tied for fifth-place in the expanded Big Ten last year, zapping its streak of three consecutive conference titles and playoff appearances. Michigan did finish on a strong note, winning three straight games — a stretch that included an upset win over eventual national champion Ohio State and ReliaQuest Bowl victory over Alabama.
This year, the Wolverines will break in another new starting quarterback, new running-back duo and look to improve their offensive line and receivers.
Defensively, Michigan lost an elite cornerback (Will Johnson) and its most disruptive edge rusher (Josaiah Stewart) but bring back a deep, experienced group that ESPN believes could be one of the best in the country.
On BetMGM, Michigan’s team total wins line is set at 8.5 for the upcoming college football season. Our BetMGM Sportsbook review shows you how to sign up and get started.
ESPN’s FPI score ranks the Michigan defense 12th, three spots ahead of last year’s preseason prediction, making it the backbone of the team.
In total, FPI projects 2.9 playoff teams to come from the Big Ten, a list that will likely include Ohio State (3), Penn State (5) and Oregon (6), leaving the Wolverines on the outside looking in when it comes to December.
Can Michigan outpace those projections? We’ll soon find out. The season opens Aug. 30 at home against New Mexico.
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