Afghanistan Going The Sri Lanka, Pakistan Way? Crisis Looms As China Eyes Mineral Riches | Exclusive
Afghanistan is on the brink of falling into a debt trap akin to Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port crisis, attributed to China eyeing the country's $3 trillion precious mineral market.
The Taliban government could be headed for crises similar to those experienced by Sri Lanka and Pakistan, top intelligence sources have warned. Sources say Afghanistan is on the brink of falling into a debt trap akin to Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port crisis, attributed to China eyeing the country’s $3 trillion precious mineral market. Sources emphasise that China prioritises its industrial needs over local development in Afghanistan.
According to top intelligence sources, Afghanistan’s integration into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is focused on expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and developing transit corridors. This integration aims to connect Afghanistan to China, Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, and South Asia. China aims to gain resource access, geopolitical influence, and regional dominance through this strategy. Specifically, China is connecting Afghanistan via ML-1 railways, Gwadar Port, the Five Nation Railway Corridor, Sino-Afghan Special Railway Transportation (SARTP), and the Wakhan Corridor.
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Sources indicate that the construction of the Peshawar-Kabul motorway and the ML-1 railway extension faces significant risks from ISIS-Khorasan, Baloch insurgents, and factions within the Kandhari Taliban. Any attack on these investments by any group could halt future funding. The Taliban’s inability to guarantee security for Chinese personnel could lead to stalled projects, similar to the Mes Aynak copper mine. While the Taliban are currently viewed as neutral, aligning with China’s agenda may force them to make biased decisions, which would compromise their flexible diplomacy, say sources.
Intelligence sources point out that the Taliban’s governance weaknesses, including internal conflicts between the Kandhari and Haqqani factions, present further challenges. They also warn that China’s agenda prioritises short-term gains, leaving Afghanistan vulnerable to external pressures.
CNN-News18 has accessed intelligence notes that reveal how China intends to exploit Afghanistan’s vast untapped mineral wealth, including lithium, rare earth metals, and copper, which are crucial for China’s technology and green energy sectors. Projects like the Sino-Afghan Special Railway Transportation (SARTP) will facilitate the efficient extraction and transport of these resources to Xinjiang. Additionally, the Amu Darya Basin oil deal, valued at $541 million, and future mining agreements will secure long-term energy and raw material supplies for China.
By connecting Afghanistan to the Gwadar Port via CPEC routes, China aims to bypass India’s Chabahar Port, redirecting Central Asian and Afghan trade through Chinese-controlled routes, say sources. This strategy will enhance Gwadar’s commercial viability and generate revenue for China. The Five Nations Railway Corridor, connecting China to Iran via Afghanistan, will integrate Afghanistan into Eurasian trade networks, opening markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe for Chinese goods.
Sources indicate that these investments position China as Afghanistan’s primary economic partner, effectively replacing the USA. Consequently, the Taliban will find themselves dependent on China for investment, similar to Pakistan. In exchange for reconstruction grants, Beijing will demand security cooperation, beginning with efforts to suppress Uyghur militancy in Xinjiang, sources add. The Taliban have already agreed to suppress groups such as ETIM, aligning closely with China’s agenda. Intelligence sources note that economic integration via the SARTP and Wakhan Corridor will increase stability in Xinjiang, boosting local economies and discouraging separatist movements.
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